A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
